Always Try One More Time When You Fail
Hello my friends 
The market was volatile and suitable for intraday trading. I hope you could use the opportunities.
I have been thinking about the ways that I can keep on publishing the daily reports and I became realized that I should get focused on one currency pair (Eur-USD). Analyzing and reporting so many currency pairs is so time consuming and tiring and if I do it again I will have to stop blogging after a while. I became more confident about this decision when one of the weblog users (John - ForExcellence) also suggested me to focus on one pair. I appreciate his assistance.
I know this is not a good news for some of you and I am sorry about that but I really have to do it. I know many of you trade other currency pairs like GBP/JPY and like to have their analysis too. Maybe you also like to try Eur-USD because it is much easier, cheaper and safer to trade.
Tip of the Day:
I hope you had the chance to read the article I wrote about the What Thomas Edison can teach us about trading forex.
According to Thomas Edison, failure doesn’t exist. When you do or try something that doesn’t work, it doesn’t mean that you have failed. It means you have found a way that doesn’t work and so you have to work on the other ways.
This is the greatest advice that a forex trader can receive. Forex is something that can be learned from try and error. Although you can learn forex through the related websites, e-books and … , you have to try and fail to learn it practically. So do not get disappointed when you fail. Just try more and more.
“Our greatest weakness lies in giving up. The most certain way to succeed is always to try just one more time.”
Fundamentals: Crude Inventories at 10:30 AM
Ok! Lets check the EUR-USD.
1:29am GMT
The weekly chart shows that the price is trying to break the Bollinger middle band as a support. Since yesterday, The price went up as predicted through the daily, 4hours and one hour chart. Please compare the last candlestick on the below weekly chart to the last one in the yesterday report. Of course both are the same candlestick. I just want you to see the changes that happened since yesterday. It seems the price is going up to retest the 161.80% level (although it was already retested last week).
In the daily chart, the yesterday’s candlestick retested the Bollinger middle band as a resistance but failed to break it up.
Since yesterday, the 4hrs chart has formed three Doji shape candlesticks. Although they are not exactly like the typical Doji candles because they have body, they reflect the indecision of the market. The 4hrs is bullish but it seems the buyer (bulls) have not been eager to buy so far. The RSI is heading to retest the RSI support:
In the one hour chart, the RSI support became broken down yesterday but the price went up and retested it as a resistance. It failed and now it is heading to go down. The price has been working around the Bollinger middle band which also admits the indecision of the market that you see in the 4hrs chart. It means Bears and Bulls have almost the same power.
So can you take any position if you don’t have any position already?
No, If you don’t have any position, just wait. If you have been lucky to sell short at about 1.5530 according to the one hour chart, just move your stop loss to the sell price and wait. As the market is in an indecision situation it may go down and you can collect some profit and if goes up your stop loss will protect you. But the daily and 4hrs looks bullish. So if you have any long position according to these charts, you should move your stop loss to the buy price because the RSI is going down to retest its support.
My prediction is that the price will go down to retest the RSI support in the 4hrs chart. So those who have a short position according to the one hour chart can collect some profit if they act fast. Keep in your mind that your short position is against the 4hrs chart direction. So be careful. It seems it can not break down the RSI support. So those who have a long position can be hopeful that it goes up after retesting the RSI support.
Further Reading:
Read and learn more about forex
trading and technical analysis
Good day Vahid,
I thoroughly understand how taxing it can be, Ii am just leaning how to read the chars and it take a couple of hours to properly determine the directions and potential opportunities.
Because of this I support you if it is that you are unable to do all the currencies. Quality is better that quantity any day.
May I suggest that possibly you could alternate the currencies, on a weekly basis but at the beginning of the week you indicate the direction on the major time frames, say the weekly, Daily and the Four hour, that way, what ever approaches that are applied in the “currency of the week” can be applied to the others that are not being addressed for that week.
Tuesday to the Friday, you could simply provide a direction for the day, say the GBY is projected to have an upwards movement to day, JPYusd will be sideways, tending to go down, but the CHF is definitely on a major/minor retracement dip OR, the AUD is on a reversal.
By this I hope you get my drift, as we would not want to permanently alienate any of our good friends who have a currency of choice.
Additionally in closing, could you do an article on equity management? What do you understand it to be? I have some guidelines I try to use and would not mind sharing in the future. It would be nice to know how you discipline yourself, so as not to over-trade your account, in any given trading session.
It is more blessed to Give than to receive, as it is in giving that we get a glimpse of potential greatness, through eyes of humility.
_San408
P.S. thanks for taking the time to share.
Thanks Vahid for your indepth analysis. I learn and improve a lot.
I understand trading EURUSD is least risky but most of the time i am waiting for the correct signals to place a trade. Can you post more volatile pair, GBPJPY or the currency pair which you see the best opportunity to place a trade. More trading opportunites for most of us, part time traders.
Thank you.
Dear San408,
Hi
Thanks for your comment and suggestions.
That’s a good idea. I will try to analyze the major currency pairs through the bigger times frames like weekly, daily and 4hrs at the weekend and report their main direction. Then I will focus on Eur-USD during the week. Of course as per request of other users, I will add GBP-JPY to my daily analysis because it is so popular too.
Dear Jeffrey,
Hi
Thanks for your comment.
Eur-USD is the most popular currency pair and so most traders trade this pair. But I know that GBP-JPY is so popular too. So I will try to analyze and report both of them. Hope this makes you happy.
Hi Vahid,
I am happy to see you return.
Eric
wellcome back vahid !