Forex Analysis Report - 3 February 2008 (night)

Hello my friends

I researched about the Pivot Points during the weekend and wrote an article about what I learned. I was not used to use the Pivot Points but I think I will have them on my charts because I have learned that they are so helpful and sometimes more helpful than the Fibonacci levels. So in case you have not read my article, I suggest you to spend few minutes and read it. You will learn a lot of new things like me:
How to Use Pivot Points in Forex and Stock Trading?

Fundamentals: Coming!

1. Euro against US Dollar (EUR-USD)

11:16pm GMT

The 1th Feb candlestick in the daily chart looks like a good and strong sell signal. So if you trade just based on the daily chart, go short if the price goes lower than the low price of the 1th Feb candlestick (the small thick green line).

The 4hrs admits this. It has formed a double top which its neckline (the green line) is broken. It means the double top should work as a reversal signal and the price should go down.

The one hour is strongly Bearish too. If you don’t have a short position already, you can go short if the price goes lower than the horizontal green line.

2. US Dollar against Swiss Franc (USD-CHF)

11:25pm GMT

When EUR-USD is Bearish the USD CHF should be Bullish. Lets see.

Yes the 1st Feb candlestick is a big Bullish candlestick with no higher shadow which means the Bulls had the full control for the last hours of the market in last week. If you like to go long, you have to wait until the price breaks the high price (which is the same as the close price in this case) of the 1st Feb candlestick.

The 4hrs admits the buy signal but if you are not already long, just wait because it seems that currently the price is going down to retest the Bollinger middle band.

The one hour chart says that the uptrend is started very strongly and currently the price is forming a flag that should breakup according to the rules. So wait for the price to break up the flag and then go long but be careful about the resistance we have at 1.0914.

3. British Pound against US Dollar (GBP-USD)

11:58pm GMT

The 1st Feb candlestick is a very big Bearish candlestick which means the Bears are so strong. The Bollinger middle band is broken down.

The 4hrs chart shows that the price is stopped by the 1.9647 that has been acting as a resistance in the past and now is working as a support. The last three candlesticks that are formed out of the Bollinger band can be considered a reversal signal but it is too early to go long. We have to wait for more confirmation.

The one hour shows that the price is trying to go up but generally I don’t dare to go long after such a big Bearish attack. I don’t know about you.

I will go long if the price breaks up the red dotted line.

Let’s check the 5min chart for more details.

It will be possible to take the proper position if the price breaks out of the big and long wedge. It seems it is breaking up.

4. US Dollar against Japanese Yen (USD-JPY)

12:19pm GMT

In the daily chart, the Bollinger middle band has been acting as a very strong resistance for a long time. Currently the price is inside a symmetrical triangle. We know what to do with this currency pair so. We have to wait until the price breaks out of the triangle because this triangle is too small to be traded when the price is still inside the triangle.

The 4hrs shows that currently the price is going up to retest the triangle resistance.

The small uptrend is started very strongly in the one hour chart but currently the price is right under the resistance and 38.20% level. So it is not the time to take any position. We have to wait and see if the price can break up the resistance or will go down.

5. British Pound against Japanese Yen (GBP-JPY)

1:20am GMT

Obviously the Bears are still so strong. The Bollinger middle bands became broken down last week and it is going up to retest the Bollinger middle band as a resistance. The daily looks uncertain right now.

The 4hrs shows a buy signal but we have to remember that the daily is right under the Bollinger middle band and so the price can go down once again.

The one hour shows the uptrend but the price is fighting with the Bollinger middle band right now.

The 5min shows a breakout. So possibly we will have an uptrend for a few hours.

Currently there is no trading opportunity but just scalping and short trading using the 5min chart. It is only recommended to the experienced traders who are fast enough to enter and exit.

6. Euro against Japanese Yen (EUR-JPY)

1:20am GMT

The price in the daily chart is inside a triangle. It is highly possible that it breaks up the triangle because the uptrend has started with a very strong signal and the Bollinger middle band is broken up.

The 4hrs shows a small triangle inside the big one you see on the daily chart.

Currently the market is in a narrow range. So we have to wait until the price retests a support or resistance and then chooses a direction. This is what the one hour chart admits. Currently it seems it should go up to retest the triangle resistance but it can also go down to retest the Bollinger middle band. So let’s wait and see what will happen.

The 5min shows that the price is going up inside an ascending channel but right now it is going down to retest the channel support. I beleive the 5min chart has the best trading opportunities right now but as I have already said, you need to be fast enough to trade with the 5min chart otherwise you lose.

7. US Dollar against Canadian Dollar (USD-CAD)

2:28am GMT

The daily shows that the price is stopped by a support and we have a double top so far. If the price breaks down the support (the lower green line) which is the neckline of the double top, it means the double top will work as a successful reversal signal. Currently it seems that the 50% level is working as a strong support and it is more possible that the price goes up.

The 4hrs has formed a triangle so far. Currently there is no signal that tells us where the price will go.

The one hour is helping more for taking a position. If the price breaks up the small wedge (thick green lines), it will be the time to go long. This is more possible to happen.

8. Australian Dollar against US Dollar (AUS-USD)

2:50am GMT

The daily chart has been Bullish strongly and there is no reversal signal so far and so it should keep on going up.

If you don’t have any position, you have to wait for the one hour chart to break out of the ascending triangle.

Further Reading:
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