FX Daily Signals, Analysis and News - 2 January 2008
Happy New Year 
We are starting the new trading year while the market has already been hot and had some good movements. I hope we can catch most of the good opportunities this year and maximize our profit.
The most important thing I want to let you know is that I have added two more currency pairs to the list of the 16 currency pairs that I analyze. So from now on, my reports include 18 currency pairs.
The two new currency pairs are Euro and Swedish Krone (EUR-SEK) and Euro and Norwegian Krone (EUR-NOK). These two currency pairs are really volatile and their movements are so big. They are dangerous currency pairs to trade intra-daily because of their volatility and their extremely high spread but they are good for swing trading through the daily and weekly charts. So I preferred to have an eye on them too because they will have a lot of great opportunities for trading. Hope you enjoy and take the advantage of them too.
Tip of the day:
Be Patient when you are making profit.
Use stop loss and move it slowly when you are making a profit in a good trade. Let a proper stop loss protect your profit and don’t close your trade. In many cases, the price changes the direction and goes against you but before hitting your stop loss, it goes to your favorite direction and you make more profit.
Be impatient when you are losing and you are realized that you have made a wrong trade.
When you find out that you have made a wrong trade, close it as soon as possible. Never be hopeful that a wrong trade changes the direction and goes to your direction. It sometimes happens but in most cases doesn’t happen. Nobody knows. So you should close it when you see it is moving against you. If you don’t do that, you will have to close it later when you have already lost a lot. So be happy with a small lose and try to recover it in the next trades.
Fundamentals:
Today we will have the FOMC Minutes announcement at 2:00pm. FOMC stands for the Federal Open Market Committee. Click Here to learn more about the FOMC.
Ok! Let’s analyze the currencies.
1. British Pound against US Dollar (GBP-USD)
Bears are still strong and didn’t let the price break the Bollinger middle band and go up. It seems it will go down and will test the 1.9752 once again.
The last weekly candlestick that was Bullish, is becoming Bearish now:
As the support is broken in the weekly chart, going down has a big possibility.
2. US Dollar against Japanese Yen (USD-JPY)
The price is testing the 38.20% level in the daily chart. It was not successful to break it and go up and so the today’s candlestick should be a Bearish candlestick. It will go down.
The weekly chart is strongly Bearish too:
3. Euro against US Dollar (EUR-USD)
It was Bearish strongly on the 31 Dec 2007. It couldn’t break the 50% level to go up and now is going down.
The weekly chart had a good Bearish attack during the last two weeks of November. So it will keep on going down in long term.
4. US Dollar against Swiss Franc (USD-CHF)
It is moving around the 38.20% and Bears were strong before it. So going down has a higher possibility but it is early to say. As you know USD-CHF and EUR-USD move against each other. So if EUR-USD is strong Bearish, the USD-CHF should go up and the big Bullish candle on the 31 Dec 2007 admits this.
5. US Dollar against Canadian Dollar (USD-CAD)
It has not been able to break the 23.60% level and so will go down but it is always possible that it tries to test again. In the weekly it also tried to break the 23.60% level and was unsuccessful so far. So going down has a higher possibility.
6. Australian Dollar against US Dollar (AUS-USD)
It seems it has not been successful to break the 23.60% level as a resistance.
The weekly chart has been moving between the 23.60% and 61.80% levels and it has been going down before it. Bears are still stronger in the weekly chart. So I think the price should go down and break the 0.8552 support. The Big bearish candlestick with a long upper shadow on 31 Dec 2007 tells me that today’s candlestick should be bearish.
7. New Zealand Dollar against US Dollar (NZD-USD)
It couldn’t break the 61.80% level on the 31 Dec 2007 and so went down. It even broke the 50% level when going down. It tried to go up and test the Bollinger middle band on January 1st but failed. It means it will go down.
It is making a Soccer pattern in the weekly chart. This will be ended to a big bearish trend.
8. Euro against Swiss Franc (EUR-CHF)
Do you see the double top? If it can break the blue line, it means the double top has worked as a reversal signal and will go down. If it can not break the blue line, it means the double top is failed as a reversal signal and the price will go up.
9. British Pound against Japanese Yen (GBP-JPY)
It has broken the pennant and went down. The pennants work as the continuation signals. So it will keep on going down.
There is a support at the 219.21. Let’s see if it can be broken or not. It seems it can be broken because bulls have not been strong for the past several weeks and bears are so strong in the weekly chart.
10. Euro against Japanese Yen (EUR-JPY)
Today it will go down to break the support at about 163.04. It seems GBP/JPY is moving ahead of EUR-JPY because it already broke the support. So EUR-JPY will break it and will go down because GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY move like each other.
11. British Pound against Canadian Dollar (GBP-CAD)
So the 23.60% couldn’t be broken. It will keep on going down.
There is a strong support at 1.9022 that I think will be broken unless the Canadian government wants to take a serious action to prevent the Canadian Dollar to become stronger because most people are not happy with the Canadian Dollar value.
12. Euro against Canadian Dollar (EUR-CAD)
Like the GBP-CAD it is going down now.
13. Euro against British Pound (EUR-GBP)
It seems it is going up to test the resistance but bulls are exhausted now and the market is over-bought. So it should go down to test the Bollinger middle band at least.
14. British Pound against Australian Dollar (GBP-AUS)
It is on the way to go further down.
15. Euro against Australian Dollar (EUR-AUS)
It is trying so hard to break the Bollinger band and go down and it seems it can do that.
16. British Pound against Swiss Franc (GBP-CHF)
It is almost in an indecision stage because the last three candlesticks are Doji. Now it is testing the support. We have to wait and see. It is still early to go long or short. If you are already short and you are in profit, keep your position with a proper stop loss. If you have taken a long position, be careful. As soon as it went lower than the support, close your position and don’t let it go against you more.
17. Euro against Swedish Krone (EUR-SEK)
It broke the Bollinger middle band and went down and tested it as a resistance and failed. It should go down now.
The weekly chart has a very good pattern and it is right at the beginning of a nice short position.
18. Euro against Norwegian Krone (EUR-NOK)
Same as the EUR-SEK, the weekly is almost at the beginning of a short.
The daily has made a double top. The second top is much lower than the first top which means the bears are getting strong and it will go down.
Further Reading:
Read and learn more about forex
trading and technical analysis
Happy new year !
Dear Vahid,
I am very interested in your “FX Daily Signals, Analysis and News”. Your “FX Daily” but I don’t see you update daily, you update from 2 or 5 days (28 Dec to 2 Jan). I don’t see the signals for buy or sell at any price. I only see the technical analysis you said it’s will going down or up (But up or down is no limit). If you can, could you make it more clearlly like: today trade from long/short side at… (price). SL at:… TP at…; R at:… S at:…
Thank you for your time.
David
Hi David,
I stopped publishing the reports for a few days because the market was slow and most of the traders were enjoying the holidays. The reports will be published on time everyday.
For each currency pair I determine the long and short opportunities and this will be used at least for the intra-day trading. You can easily know from my reports that if you go long/short with each especial currency pair for the same day. If I see any swing trading signal, I announce it in the reports too. For example I announced a good short opportunity for EUR/JPY last week.
Hi Vahid,
I see on 28 Dec update “10. Euro against Japanese Yen (EUR-JPY) Wow! It is forming a beautiful reversal signal to go short BUT we have to wait until tomorrow for the last candle stick to be formed completely”.
“Tomorrow” is 31 Dec, while the last candle stick is not jet formed completely, it’s a BIG down allready. So is it 50/50 ?
Hello vahid bro,
can i get all this stuff in my e-mail adrees on daily basis? if yes i will be very thank full to you
Hi David,
I don’t know what do you mean by “So is it 50/50 ?”
However, I took the advantage of the short position and have made about 300 pips so far.
I only describe what I see and what I predict. It is up to the users if they like to take the risk and take any position according to my predictions. I don’t say go short, go long and … .
Professional traders know that some of the predictions will not be correct but beginners who are so eager to make money faster and easier, will blame me that why did you recommend us go short or long? Most of the users of weboma.com are beginner traders. So I have to be careful.
Shafiq,
You can bookmark my blog or subscribe for the feed at the end of this article or at the top right corner and receive the reports in your email inbox.
What are the chances of GBP going up against INR in the coming months??
So how many of these predictions have come true?
Can you really predict currency fluctuations with trends analysis or you be more interested in fundamentals?
John